Are Instagram and YouTube about to get $11 billion after TikTok's ban?

What happens to $11 billion in annual US advertising dollars if TikTok is banned? That’s the question facing the digital marketing world as advertisers brace for the potential disappearance of the popular app.

$11 billion is not a small sum by any stretch of the imagination, so I think it will quickly find its new home.

On the other hand, the Pentagon recently failed its seventh audit in a row, and the Defense Department said it's still unable to track its nearly trillion-dollar budget. I guess the advertising dollars will be handled with far greater care, though.

So, ByteDance's TikTok is facing a January 19 deadline to sell TikTok's US operations or risk a nationwide ban. Many brands and marketers are scrambling to redirect their budgets, a report from Reuters reads. Industry insiders suggest Instagram and YouTube stand to gain the most, with their short-video formats, Reels and Shorts, positioned to capture the lion’s share of TikTok's ad spend.

That's if people want to migrate back to the aforementioned platforms, though. Many are choosing a different path:

• A new Chinese social media dominates the US App Store. Is the Senate a joke to you?

The said Chinese social media app saw a massive surge in popularity earlier this week, gaining nearly 3 million US users in a single day. Not bad, huh?

The sudden chaos surrounding TikTok's future has left advertisers rushing to adapt.

If the ban proceeds as planned, Instagram and YouTube could see an influx of billions in ad revenue. Platforms with established short-video capabilities are expected to absorb displaced budgets, particularly as advertisers already familiar with these ecosystems look for seamless transitions.

Despite the looming deadline, TikTok has continued to promote itself to advertisers, recently introducing tools to streamline ad creation and maintaining a presence at high-profile industry events.

Internally, however, the situation appears less certain. Reports indicate that TikTok staff remain in the dark about what will happen after Sunday, though the company has offered favorable refunds to advertisers if campaigns are interrupted.

The potential ban has also sparked a scramble among creators and brands to save their content. Influencers, many of whom have built businesses around TikTok, are downloading their data en masse to preserve years of work. One content creator shared a video with her followers, offering step-by-step instructions on how to back up their accounts before it’s too late.

By 2025, the platform was projected to command 20% of US social media ad spending, up from just 2% in 2020. TikTok’s mix of influencer marketing and shopping features has made it a strong sales platform. Research shows that nearly 44% of US TikTok users were expected to shop on the app by the end of 2024, outpacing Facebook and Instagram.