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If you were left feeling a little underwhelmed or outright disappointed by the official announcements of Samsung's latest foldable devices earlier this week, it looks like the company expects that to be a pretty universal reaction among prospective buyers of the Galaxy Z Flip 6 and Z Fold 6 around the world.
Obviously, the mobile industry's top global vendor is not going to come right out and admit that it's setting modest sales goals for its newest Z-series flagships due to their clear lack of innovation. But if we read between the lines of a statement from the tech giant's President and Head of the Mobile eXperience division, we can draw some pretty worrisome conclusions for Samsung and perhaps even the foldable segment as a whole.
(512GB) Z Fold 6: up to $1,200 off; Z Flip 6: up to $650 off
The Galaxy Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6 are available at Samsung.com. Right now, you can get the 51GB Galaxy Z Fold 6 for up to $1,200 off with a trade-in. The Z Flip 6 comes at up to $650 off, provided you spare an eligible device in good condition.
The Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6 will probably not sell like hotcakes
How do we know that? Well, we don't, and neither does Samsung. But companies and industry pundits can often predict how a new phone (or two) will perform at the box-office with remarkable accuracy based on all kinds of factors ranging from history to social media buzz and the general state of a certain market or product category.
With those things (and many others) in mind, the Galaxy Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6 makers apparently aim to sell "10 percent more of new products compared with the previous model released last year." While selling more devices naturally beats selling fewer units, a 10 percent improvement doesn't sound very substantial, especially in a segment where other brands are growing at a significantly faster pace.
The Z Fold 6 is a little too similar to the Z Fold 5 to become a big box-office hit. | Image Credit -- PhoneArena
Samsung, mind you, was the world's number one foldable smartphone vendor in Q4 2023 before losing that dominant position to Huawei for the first three months of this year. The new market leader impressively boosted its Q1 shipment figures by 257 percent (!!!) between last year and 2024, and even though Huawei is not expected to maintain that same progress rate going forward, its top spot is unlikely to be threatened by Samsung.
Perhaps the biggest problem with Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6 sales target is that these things generally tend to be rather optimistic this early in a phone's commercial run, so that 10 percent growth over the Z Fold 5 and Z Flip 5 may not pan out in reality.
For his part, display industry expert Ross Young believes the Galaxy Z Flip 6 is indeed on track to improve on its predecessor's 2023 numbers this year, but the Z Fold 6 might not outsell the Z Fold 5. This prediction is based on early June to November production estimates of 4.2 million units for the Z Flip 6 and 2.2 million for the Z Fold 6, but it's unclear if the total is higher, lower, or equal to the combined tally of the Z Flip 5 and Z Fold 5 during the same period of 2023.
What other foldables could prove more popular?
While Samsung doesn't expect any miracles from its admittedly repetitive new Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6, these are still likely to become the world's most successful foldable devices by the end of 2024.
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That's according to the same aforementioned display industry consultant, who believes the Galaxy Z Flip 6 will "surely be the best selling foldable" of the year, with the Z Fold 6 predicted to vie for second place alongside the Huawei Mate X5.
The Z Flip 6 is likely to be the most popular foldable of the end of the year.
That would suggest Samsung is not really in as much trouble as it seems in the rapidly expanding foldable market after all, but the problem is a bunch of different brands are massively increasing their sales figures with larger and larger families of aggressively priced models.
We're talking about everyone from Honor to Motorola, Vivo, Oppo, and of course, Huawei, and while these companies are unlikely to challenge Samsung in terms of individual device popularity in the near future, models like the new Razr duo, the upcoming Magic V3, and the X Fold 3 Pro could well prove at least partially responsible for the Z Fold 6 and Z Flip 6's stagnant numbers.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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