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Samsung expects the Galaxy S22 family to outsell the S21 but not the Galaxy S10 series

By Adrian Diaconescu

Published: Feb 10, 2022, 11:11 AM

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Samsung expects the Galaxy S22 family to outsell the S21 but not the Galaxy S10 series

Now that the Galaxy S22, S22+, and S22 Ultra are finally official, confirming almost every single leak from the last few weeks (months? years? decades?), it's time to kick off another news cycle that's likely to feel endless and unbearable too before long.

Technically, what we're looking at here today is a report publishedprior to Samsung's big Unpacked launch event yesterday, which initially went largely unnoticed for pretty obvious reasons. This is just the first in an undoubtedly long line of Galaxy S22 series sales predictions, estimations, and evaluations coming soon to help put the success of the new ultra-high-end smartphones in perspective from both a historical and competition standpoint.

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Don't expect any records to be broken

Given the current state of the mobile industry, it may not seem fair to compare the numbers expected from a 2022 flagship (or three) with those achieved back in 2018 by the Galaxy S9 duo or a year later by the S10 trio. But such comparisons are inevitable, and while the global smartphone market suffered a major decline in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic, 2021 shipments were almost on par with 2019's figures.

Despite that partial recovery to pre-pandemic levels for the industry as a whole, the world's largest handset vendor sold considerably fewer units in 2021 than two years before, and the Galaxy S21 lineup was most likely one of Samsung's biggest duds.

Samsung would probably love to forget all about the Galaxy S21 family.

According to one report, the S21, S21+, and S21 Ultra barely reached a combined sales total of 13.5 million units during their first six months of commercial availability, slashing roughly 20 percent off the numbers posted by the S20 family in a similar timeframe (at pretty much the peak of the pandemic) and dropping almost 50 percent compared to the Galaxy S10 series.

Although it's unclear how high that tally may have climbed in recent months, we seriously doubt the Galaxy S21 trio is even close to making the 20 million milestone, which makes Samsung's "late-20 million units" shipment goal for the S22 family seem quite ambitious.

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The company even plans to manufacture enough components for around 30 million Galaxy S22-series devices, representing a 20 percent improvement over the initial production estimates of the S21 lineup. That's also a lot better than what Samsung was reportedly eyeing for the S22 family in September 2021, but it does not equate with 30 million unit sales, guaranteeing the high-end shipment records of 2018 and 2019 will hold up.

Galaxy S22 vs S22+ vs S22 Ultra - which model will be more successful?

At least for the time being, this is purportedly Samsung's manufacturing plan for the three main members of its newest premium smartphone family:

Galaxy S22 - 12 million units
Galaxy S22 Plus - 8 million units
Galaxy S22 Ultra - 10 million units

Surprised? Kind of, right? After all, the "regular-sized" S22 looks like the least exciting variant... for power users. Of course, not everyone can afford to spend $1,200 (and up) on the S Pen-wielding Ultra, even with so many good launch deals helping you keep things relatively manageable from a budget perspective.

Galaxy S22 (right) and S22 Plus (left)

Once again, though, initial (component) production goals are not the same thing as actual handset sales to end users, and depending on demand trends noticed during the ongoing pre-order period, we fully expect to hear news about adjustments made to the specific aforementioned numbers, as well as the grand total soon.

In addition to the lower price of the "standard" Galaxy S22, it's probably safe to assume the compact body will also play an important role in its superior popularity over the Plus and Ultra models. That's a little odd considering the modest sales results of the iPhone 12 mini and 13 mini, further proving there is a market for smaller-than-average handsets... as long as they're larger than 5.4 inches.

Of course, the 6.1-inch iPhone 13 is actually the 6.1-inch Galaxy S22's direct rival, spearheading an incredibly successful quartet that reportedly achieved 40 million unit shipments in the holiday quarter alone, completely shattering Samsung's most optimistic lifetime S22 series targets.

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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.