The foldable smartphone market is still small, but Counterpoint Research expects demand to skyrocket over the coming years with Samsung set to retain its current position as the segment leader.
Foldable smartphone shipments could reach 30 million units in 2023
Around 3 million foldable smartphones were shipped around the world in 2020. That number is expected to triple to 9 million units this year, with Samsung accounting for around 88% of the global market thanks to the Galaxy Z series.
A similar trend should continue throughout next year and by 2023 Counterpoint Research expects foldable smartphone shipments to reach 30 million units, a 10x increase over 2020 demand.
Impressively, Samsung is predicted to continue dominating the foldable segment with a market share of 75% in 2023. That’s despite the expectation that new brands like Google and Honor will enter the segment in the coming months.
Beyond 2023, though, there’s no guarantee Samsung will be able to maintain such a high market share. The reason being that Apple could launch a foldable iPhone, which Counterpoint believes will be an inflection point.
If an iPhone Fold or iPhone Flip is released, foldable smartphones will truly become a mainstream product. More importantly, the move would improve the scale and yield of component production for all suppliers.
Samsung will make foldables more accessible with the Flip 3 and Fold 3
Before the foldable iPhone launch, growth will largely be driven by improved designs and hardware, in addition to competitive pricing. Leaks suggest that Samsung is preparing to lower the cost of its products with the Galaxy Z Flip 3 and Fold 3.
Counterpoint Research believes Samsung will target younger customers with the upcoming Galaxy Z Flip 3. The new Galaxy Z Fold 3 with S Pen compatibility, on the other hand, will be aimed at former Galaxy Note customers.
Foldable smartphones could also prove to be a good growth opportunity for Samsung in China, a market it has failed to crack. This would be heavily dependent on the company absorbing some of Huawei’s leftover business.
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