Sales mix of new iPhone 16 models flashes a yellow "caution" light for Apple
Consumers Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) customer survey for December delivers instant feedback about the demand for the new iPhone 16 series which was released in September. The quarter that ended at the end of December showed that the new iPhone 16 models are as popular as the iPhone models released by Apple in previous years. But CIRP says that a change in the sales mix should lead analysts to be cautious and even pessimistic about how well the current iPhone 16 line will perform at the cash register.
During the December 2024 quarter, sales of new iPhone 16 series models made up 68% of all U.S. iPhone sales. That is slightly more than the 65% of all stateside iPhone sales that the iPhone 15 line was responsible for during the December 2023 quarter. Comparing individual models during the December quarters of 2023 and 2024, this year the iPhone 16 Pro Max generated 23% of sales which is pretty similar to the 26% captured during last year's December quarter by the iPhone 15 Pro Max.
iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max sales in the U.S. made their lowest contribution to overall December sales in the last five years
The iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro both had 16% of U.S. iPhone sales in the December quarter of 2024 and 2023, respectively. The 39% share of U.S. iPhone sales that came from the iPhone 16 Pro models was the lowest total for the more premium iPhones during the December quarter over the last five years. Surely that change must mean something. Also of note was the huge increase in the percentage of U.S. iPhone sales credited to the base model during the December quarter.
Breakdown of December quarter U.S. iPhone sales in 2023 and 2024. | Image credit-CIRP
For example, during the three months ending at the end of December 2023, the iPhone 15 contributed 15% of U.S. iPhone sales that quarter. During the 2024 December quarter, the base iPhone 16 made up a whopping 21% of U.S. iPhone sales. What brought on this big change in the iPhone sales mix? CIRP didn't mention it, but in December 2023, the iPhone 15 Pro was the lowest-priced iPhone with support for Apple Intelligence. In December 2024, the iPhone 16 was the lowest-priced iPhone with Apple Intelligence.
But Apple's AI initiative isn't the whole story. As CIRP points out, older models without Apple Intelligence outperformed in 2024. For example, during the December quarter the two-year-old iPhone 14 accounted for 16% of the quarter's total iPhone sales in the U.S. The previous year, the iPhone 13 was responsible for only 12% of U.S. iPhone sales during the quarter.
Could Apple Intelligence be behind the surge in U.S. iPhone 16 sales during the December 2024 quarter?
I believe that Apple Intelligence was the reason for the surge in sales of the basic iPhone 16 model in the U.S. last quarter. The increase in sales of the iPhone 14 vs the iPhone 13 during the last two December quarters is more of a mystery. And perhaps there is a reason why the sales of iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max models combined for the lowest share of "Pro" iPhone sales in the U.S. during the December quarter over the last five years. CIRP had some interesting thoughts about the latter.
Could active iPhone Pro series users be enjoying long-lasting performance that allows them to get by without upgrading to a new iPhone Pro or iPhone Pro Max model? Are those who typical shell out the big bucks for the two most expensive iPhone models waiting for the expected changes coming to this year's iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max in September? Perhaps the most damaging to Apple is the theory that higher prices for just about anything is forcing iPhone Pro and Pro Max buyers to save a few hundred dollars by buying the lower-priced non-Pro models instead.
It's still too early after the release of the iPhone 16 series to mine for such definitive answers. CIRP says that it should know more about what is going on with U.S. iPhone sales after a couple of more quarters. Stay tuned.
FCC OKs Cingular\'s purchase of AT&T Wireless
Things that are NOT allowed: