Insider explains why there won't be an iPhone supercycle this year

Some analysts have been calling for the iPhone to experience a supercycle this year. That occurs when many iPhone owners who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect time to upgrade finally decide to replace their old iPhone with a new model. Typically, there is a catalyst that sets off the supercycle and this year it would seem to be obvious that Apple Intelligence, Apple's AI initiative, would drive upgrade sales.

Since the only models that will support Apple's AI platform this year are the iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 Pro Max, iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and the iPhone 16 Pro Max, if there ever were a supercycle year, it would seem to be this one. But Mark Gurman begs to differ. In the latest edition of Gurman's Power On newsletter, the Bloomberg scribe writes that a supercycle is unlikely this year.

Part of the reason for doubting that we will see an iPhone supercycle with the iPhone 16 series has to do with the macroeconomic headwinds impacting global smartphone demand. Even in China, the world's largest smartphone market, sales of handsets have been sluggish. As for the new iPhone models, a supercycle is not going to occur just because the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will have slightly larger screens (6.3-inch and 6.9-inch, respectively).

There also won't be a rush to upgrade because of the new 48MP sensor for the ultra-wide camera on the new Pro series devices. The change to vertically mounted rear cameras from diagonally mounted lenses on the non-Pro units also won't move the needle on sales. That is true even if this placement now allows photos and videos taken with the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus to be viewed in 3D on the Vision Pro.

Perhaps the biggest reason why Gurman doesn't foresee a rush of upgrades for the iPhone this year has to do with the staggered releases of Apple's AI features. In fact, the iPhone 16 series won't be getting the Apple Intelligence beta until October when iOS 18.1 is out and even then, many of the eagerly awaited features such as Genmoji, which allows users to create custom emojis, won't be disseminated until iOS 18.2 is released in December.

That update could also include the ChatGPT chatbot. The Image Playground, the AI feature that allows users to create images for Messages, Notes, Keynote, Pages, and other apps, is also expected to surface with iOS 18.2. ChastGPT's integration with Siri, which is something we've all been looking forward to, will occur sometime next year.

Apple Intelligence is also very much limited as the platform is not yet available in the EU or even China. Gurman notes that the majority of consumers don't even know why they need Apple Intelligence and Apple will need time to explain this to those who own older iPhone models to get them feeling the need to upgrade.

So the only new features that are left include the Capture button which will be on all iPhone 16 models and will allow users to zoom in or zoom out, focus the camera, and snap a picture or start video recording. The Action button, which debuted on the iPhone 15 Pro line last year, will be found on all iPhone 16 devices. The button activates a pre-selected task with the touch of a button. And neither button is enough to set off a supercycle.

But this doesn't mean that Gurman doesn't see a supercycle for the iPhone coming soon. Looking ahead a year he sees Apple Intelligence available in more of the world and a rumored new look for the iPhone 17 series. Gurman doesn't expect to see an iPhone 16 supercycle but can see one taking place for the iPhone 17 series next year.

Apple will be unveiling the iPhone 16 series along with the new Apple Watch Series 10, Apple Watch SE 3, Apple Watch Ultra 3, and two new fourth-generation AirPods tomorrow, September 9th, starting at 10 am PT/1 pm ET.