Surprisingly, new features don't drive phone owners to upgrade but this one condition does

Some analysts were expecting pent-up demand from owners of older iPhone models to create an iPhone 16 supercycle, especially with the launch of some Apple Intelligence features with the release of iOS 18.1 next month. Others, such as Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, have said that a supercycle won't occur until Apple releases the iPhone 17 series next year. Meanwhile, CIRP (Consumer Intelligence Research Partners LLC) says that most iPhone users will hold on to their old models for at least three years before upgrading.

The report notes that over the last year ending last June, 34% of new iPhone buyers were purchasing a new model to replace a phone that they held for three years or longer. That was slightly more than the 33% of iPhone units held for three-years or longer that were replaced with a new model the previous year. Just under one-third of consumers purchased a new iPhone to replace a previous phone they used for two years or less. Note that the phones being replaced by a new iPhone unit were either iPhone or Android models. 

New features aren't an automatic reason to upgrade to a new phone. CIRP  says that more important to a phone owner is the current condition of his daily driver as opposed to an improved camera sensor, AI features, or better battery life. And new phones are being made to last longer which explains why Google and Samsung offer up to seven Android updates with some models.

Another reason why phone owners are holding on to their phones longer has to do with the monthly financing used to purchase the device when new. Once the final monthly payment is made, the phone owner often sees as much as a $40 decline in his monthly payments. The reduction in the monthly payment is often enough to get the consumer to stay out of the new phone market until he absolutely needs to buy a new phone.

This is why some U.S. carriers are offering incredible incentives to get consumers to buy a new iPhone. Last year, my carrier offered me over $800 for my iPhone 11 Pro Max and while I wasn't planning to upgrade last year, I ended up with an iPhone 15 Pro Max.  

CIRP expects the current trend among consumers to hold their daily driver for a longer period of time to continue.