Many see the iPhone 16 as yet another minuscule upgrade, but (so far) the newest Apple phone is performing better than its predecessor, the iPhone 15.
There's a Bloomberg report that cites Counterpoint Research data and notes that the iPhone 16 series (debuted in September 2024) has "outperformed" its predecessor. Overall, the data shows that consumers still prefer to get the pricier models, so much so that the iPhone 16 Pro and the iPhone 16 Pro Max gained 44% compared with 2023.
Although the data covers just the initial three weeks, it indicates that Apple's 2024 launch is performing better than the previous year's. In 2023, production challenges affected the early sales of the iPhone 15 lineup, likely limiting its initial success, according to Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam.
At the same time, Apple's flagship product faced tough competition from Huawei Technologies' Mate 60 series, which attracted local buyers with its Chinese-made processor. That device continues to perform well in the market, as noted by Lam.
Lam highlighted that, with a smoother production process, consistent pricing, and a strong response from existing iPhone users upgrading to the new models, the iPhone 16 series has seen significant growth in China. He also pointed out a noticeable improvement in the product mix.
Despite earlier concerns from analysts that the iPhone 16 might struggle in China due to the lack of a local partner for its AI features, the series has been performing well. With Beijing's restrictions on foreign-developed AI models, Apple may eventually need to partner with a Chinese company like Baidu Inc. to continue its growth in the region.
As you probably know, iPhone 16 buyers in the EU are also unlikely to see all the Apple Intelligence features anytime soon because of strict regulations on the Old Continent. Chinese users might have the best chance of experiencing Apple’s generative AI after the iOS 18 update, but there's a big "if".
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In the US, Apple has partnered with OpenAI for its ChatGPT-based generative AI service.
However, in China, only local generative AI companies have been granted approval for their models, and ChatGPT is not available commercially. Rumors suggest that Apple may collaborate with local tech giant Baidu for its Ernie LLM, similar to Samsung’s approach in the region. This potential partnership could delay the introduction of Apple’s own AI features in China.
Meanwhile, Apple is under increasing pressure from local competitors like Huawei, which saw a staggering 44% recent growth in shipments within China, compared to Apple’s 6% decline reported earlier. Ivan Lam from Counterpoint Research noted that Apple’s iPhone is likely to continue losing ground in the premium segment to Huawei and other Chinese brands.
Hit or miss?
The iPhone 16 Pro performs better than the iPhone 15 Pro from last year – at least in its first three weeks. | Image credit – PhoneArena
The surge in iPhone 16 sales in China was surprising, especially considering the overall weak spending on luxury items, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Anurag Rana and Andrew Girard. They noted that while early adopters may have contributed to this initial sales spike, they are less optimistic about the possibility of double-digit growth in 2025.
That's my own personal take on things, also: just three weeks of sales is not enough to say that the iPhone 16 is a hit in the Far East. Even if it sells well for another week or two, things might take another course. Especially when you've got amazing devices from the competition like the just-released Vivo X200.
In contrast, Wedbush analysts expressed a more positive outlook, predicting that this iPhone upgrade cycle could be a "historic" one. They expect iPhone 16 sales in China to show a significant rebound in the coming year, driven by what they described as the beginning of an AI-driven supercycle.
Despite its strong start, the iPhone 16 is facing stiff competition from several major local rivals this year. Vivo has just introduced its new aforementioned flagship, Huawei is preparing to launch its next-generation Mate device in November, and both Xiaomi and Oppo plan to update their product lines before the end of the year. China remains the largest and, in the view of Apple CEO Tim Cook, the most competitive smartphone market in the world.
For Apple, the iPhone remains its most critical product, generating about half of its total sales and attracting customers to its accessories and services, like the Apple Watch and Apple Music. However, the global smartphone market has been stagnant for some time, and it's unclear how well the latest iPhone generation will perform over its lifecycle.
The iPhone 16 launch follows a challenging 2023 for China, one of the world’s largest economies (some say it's already the biggest), which struggled to recover from the post-Covid downturn. That economic slump worsened in 2024, exacerbated by a property crisis. Ivan Lam suggested that some Chinese consumers might delay major purchases until Singles’ Day discounts in November.
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Sebastian, a veteran of a tech writer with over 15 years of experience in media and marketing, blends his lifelong fascination with writing and technology to provide valuable insights into the realm of mobile devices. Embracing the evolution from PCs to smartphones, he harbors a special appreciation for the Google Pixel line due to their superior camera capabilities. Known for his engaging storytelling style, sprinkled with rich literary and film references, Sebastian critically explores the impact of technology on society, while also perpetually seeking out the next great tech deal, making him a distinct and relatable voice in the tech world.
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