Apple Intelligence is not enough of an upgrade to make the expected iPhone 16 frenzy happen

Bold men make bold statements. Like this statement right here:


What Tim Cook means, in case anyone is wondering, is that presumably millions of people – not just iPhone 12, iPhone 13 users, but also iPhone 15 users will surely get the iPhone 16 because of Apple Intelligence (a suite of AI features) that was recently announced.

I, for one, don't think this will be the case. Stick with me for a couple of minutes, and I'll tell you why.

Who said what… and why

The aforementioned quote from Tim Cook comes in the light of recent Apple earnings announcement, although the Steve Jobs successor did not specify how many iPhone 16 units are expected to be sold in the US and around the globe in the 2024/25 season.

Nonetheless, Tim Cook's optimism stems from the belief that Apple Intelligence, Apple's latest AI initiative, will offer compelling reasons for users of older iPhone models to upgrade. However, there are some factors not to be ignored, which could mean that this enthusiasm might be misplaced and that the anticipated hit sales might not materialize at the end of the day.

What exactly is Apple Intelligence?

Right off the bat, it's a genius, albeit a bit corny appropriation of the AI abbreviation for artificial intelligence.

This is the way for Apple to wash away the shame and to own the fact that it's really, really late to the AI party, as I've noted on previous occasions.

In short, Apple Intelligence is Apple’s new artificial intelligence platform that promises to enhance user experiences across its ecosystem. Given that Apple Intelligence requires a minimum of 8GB of RAM, it will be available on all four iPhone 16 models, as these will come with 8 gigs of memory:

• iPhone 16
• iPhone 16 Plus
• iPhone 16 Pro
• iPhone 16 Pro Max.

If you've been following things closely, you know that the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max are the only iPhones from 2023 that are also compatible with Apple Intelligence. That leaves 'vanilla' iPhone 15 and 15 Plus owners outside the AppInt (shorter for 'Apple Intelligence') prime members club.

Why people might ignore the iPhone 16

I'm not as blackpilled as I might sound, but I won't be surprised if the iPhone 16 mania doesn't materialize and instead, users save their breath (and savings) for the iPhone 17.

My profound doubts in the potential hit sales of the iPhone 16 come from the same place where Tim Cook draws inspiration.

He believes that people are thrilled by the Apple Intelligence enigma, which was teased a few months ago at WWDC 2024. He believes that having an exclusive device that can run Apple Intelligence is enough to make people start throwing their credit cards around.



I think that most of the people have kind of half-forgotten about Apple Intelligence – there are a few things in the news cycle that kind of outshine the promise of a phone that can rewrite your email in a different tone. Of course, there's more to Apple Intelligence than that, I'm just being cynical.

In my humble opinion, the majority of people are not yet that dependent on AI – we're only in the dawn of the revolution. AI features, while exciting, often appeal more to early adopters and tech enthusiasts rather than the broader consumer base.

Also, there's the competition factor. Why spend a fortune on the iPhone 16, if you can find cheaper alternatives?

Companies like Samsung, Google, and OnePlus are already introducing AI innovations that make Apple devices look a bit outdated. If competitors offer similar AI or camera advancements at a lower price, or if they provide other appealing features, consumers might choose to switch brands rather than upgrade within the Apple ecosystem.



For example, unlike Apple, which limits its AI features to its two most expensive iPhones, Oppo promises to make AI accessible to more people by including it in its mid-range and budget phones, just like its top models such as the Find X7 Ultra. Oppo has kept its promise with the recently-unveiled Reno 12 series, which launched globally. This new series stands out with its design, affordability, and the same AI features found in the brand’s higher-priced flagship models.

Or is it all a well-crafted plan that will result in a triumph?

If there's a fan base that you can rely on to automatically upgrade their handset every time a new model is available, it's the Apple crowd. I don't say that as a negative. Yes, you can call it a cult, but at least its followers are consistent. At the end of the day, this is what it takes to be loyal to your brand of choice.

If I look for the blind spots in my argument that the iPhone 16 won't sell that great, I have to state the following.



Yes, Apple is late to the AI party. Yes, its competitors are crushing it. It's not just Google and Samsung, brands like Oppo and Xiaomi are also deep down the AI rabbit hole, as we discussed above.

However, this might be seen as a positive by Apple. "Let the competition pave the way, let them school the public on what AI is – then, and only then, we'll enter the stage" – that sort of attitude.

And you know what, there's a chance that this might actually work.

Apart from that, it's not just Apple Intelligence that people are getting with the iPhone 16.

The new iPhone line will also offer larger screens for the Pro models, advanced camera features (a Tetraprism periscope lens and possibly a 48MP ultra-wide camera). The non-Pro models will see changes like a vertical rear camera alignment and the addition of the Action button from the iPhone 15 Pro. All new iPhones will have a Capture button for easier photo and video management.

In the end, the decision to upgrade your phone to a state-of-the-art iPhone does not mean that you're buying just any phone out there. A decision like that involves a complex interplay of features, pricing (!), competition (also "!"), and user needs. Apple Intelligence, while an advancement, may not be enough bait for users to take. Change my mind!