iPhone 16 Pro, iPhone 16 Pro Max outperform base models reversing previous trend
JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee's Apple Product Availability Tracker for 2024, now in its third week, is indicating that lead times for the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus models are getting shorter while lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max models are holding steady. Lead times (the number of days between the time a product is ordered and when it is received) dropped by 7 days for the iPhone 16 base model and 11 days for the iPhone 16 Plus from the second week to the third week.
This compares to a drop of only one day in lead times for the iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Plus from the second to third week last year. This indicates that demand for the non-Pro iPhone models is not as strong this year as it was last year. But the lead times for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max held steady from week two to week three, a sign of strong demand. Last year during the same time period from week two to week three, the lead times for the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max declined by seven days and nine days respectively. The iPhone 16 Pro models are seeing stronger demand.
After getting off to a hot start, demand for the iPhone 16 non-Pro models has been dropping off. | Image credit-Apple
Overall, the iPhone 16 series lead times are lower than the lead times that the iPhone 15 line had during the same week last year. Looking at these figures, one could conclude that demand is off for the 2024 iPhone models compared with last year's phones. But Chatterjee sees something else in the data. The narrowing of the difference in lead times between the 2024 non-Pro and Pro models is revealing that demand for the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max is picking up compared to the non-Pro phones.
Chatterjee's U.S. tracker showed lead times stabilizing for Pro models while non-Pro models had moderate lead times. The U.S. makes up around 32% of iPhone shipments. In China, lead times dropped sharply for the iPhone 16 Plus and moderately for iPhone 16. The iPhone 16 Pro models had stable lead times indicating stronger demand for the iPhone 16 Pro models in China which accounts for 20% of global iPhone shipments.
The same thing was spotted in Europe where lead times for the iPhone 16 non-Pro models were moderate, but stable for the Pro models. Again, the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max are showing signs of demand compared to the non-Pro models. Germany and the U.K. each make up about 5% of iPhone shipments.
It appears that after the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus outperformed the two Pro models over the first week and the second week, the iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max are showing increased demand. My personal guess is that talk of the big jump in iPhone 16 Pro Max battery life is hitting home with consumers.
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