iPhone demand expected to pick up steam starting H2 2020

In recent times, we have seen a lot of bearish outlooks for the smartphone industry. The coronavirus is expected to trigger a recession, and this, in turn, will likely reduce demand. According to a recent report, overall shipments will decline by 15 percent this year. However, not all estimates are pessimistic. The financial services company Cowen, in particular, is hopeful that the demand for Apple’s iPhone will start recovering as we enter the second half of the year.
 
Per a note to investors seen by AppleInsider, although Cowen believes the March and June fiscal quarters will be somewhat rough for the company, it expects demand to pick up later in 2020. The firm also notes that currently, there are around 900 million iPhone users, and as the average age of the phones is nearing 5 years, many people will be looking to upgrade their devices.
 

Cowen has revised March estimates already, adding 2 million more units for the iPhone SE

 
Cowen expects Apple to sell 33 million iPhones in the March financial quarter and 37 million units in the June quarter. While this would be a quarterly increase, it would actually be a 1 percent decrease when compared to the year-ago quarter.

However, an improvement in market sentiment is expected in the subsequent quarters. Later on, after 2020 ends, Cowen expects the demand for 5G iPhones to be solid. Additionally, the investment banking company also thinks that the services segment will continue to grow as countries around the world remain in a lockdown due to the pandemic, bolstering demand for entertainment services such as Apple TV+.
 
This forecast is more optimistic than some of the previous ones we have seen. Goldman Sachs, for instance, expects demand to fall through mid-2020, before heading towards a shallow recovery in 2021. The investment bank also foresees average selling price going down and it also thinks that the growth of the Services segment will slow down substantially.