iPhone can't save the foldable market any more than Vision Pro saved the headset market

No one is immune to failure. This includes mighty Apple, which is why I am skeptical of claims that the iPhone will turn the foldable market around and drive up adoption.

The foldable market has started to stagnate and the foldable iPhone has the full weight of the industry on its shoulders. We might be pinning too much hope on Apple, which stopped out-innovating rivals long ago.

While Apple continues to be one of the top players in the smartphone and tablet market, sales haven't been particularly impressive in a long time. That's even though the broader market is not in a slump. It's easy to see why the company hasn't scored any big wins in recent memory and a foldable iPhone isn't likely to do much - neither for Apple nor for the foldable market as a whole.

Apple Vision Pro didn't push headsets into the mainstream

Apple's $3,500 headset which was supposed to revive the Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) market has proven to be a bust. The product was such a letdown that hordes of customers returned the headset within days of purchasing it. There are no signs of sales picking up again, which is apparently why Apple will stop producing it.

CEO Tim Cook is trying to downplay the underwhelming response to its headset by saying it's an 'early adopter product.' That doesn't deflect from the fact that Apple doesn't always get products right.

Inherent market problems

VR and AR technologies have a small user base, primarily because there's no compelling use case for them. While Vision Pro does have hardware flaws, the bigger problem is that not many people are looking to buy headsets.

The foldable market is no different. Beyond the initial oohs and aahs, there are no obvious benefits to switching to a bendable phone. Is Apple going to come up with a killer use case for its foldable iPhone? You only have to look at Apple Intelligence for the answer.

Apple Intelligence is meh

Apple only recently started rolling out the first batch of Apple Intelligence features and its AI suite brings nothing new to the table. While AI features were exciting initially, now they are so woven into everything that they can't make the iPhone 16 stand out. This partially explains why sales are below expectations. On the other hand, Google and Samsung were quick to jump on the trend and were rewarded by elevated sales.

Apple is stingy with features

While Apple still dominates the tablet market, Samsung has steadily been cutting the gap, despite the Cupertino giant banging out more powerful devices. Apple has hamstrung the capabilities of the iPad by placing unnecessary restrictions on the operating system.

Since foldable phones are essentially part tablets, I fear that the foldable iPhone will feel as restrictive as the iPad.

Obsession with perfection could be a problem

Apple has reportedly held back on releasing a foldable iPhone so far because it wants to eliminate the crease that plagues all foldable phones and make it impossibly thin. The rumored iPhone Air might be the first demonstration of how the company will achieve some of its goals: by going for a single-camera system and a small battery for its foldable phone. This could lessen the appeal of the device, as it will likely fall in the premium category and command a high price.

Apple may prove me wrong and propel the foldable industry forward, but unless it's relying on anything other than expected popularity, I don't see how it will pull this feat off.