iPhone 16 might teach Apple that being late to the party doesn't work every time

The iPhone 16 might not do better than the iPhone 15, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

A week ago, Bloomberg published a report said that that Apple aimed to sell 90 million iPhone 16 units in the second half of 2024, 10 percent more than the 81 million iPhone devices sold in the second half of 2023. Another report claimed that iPhone manufacturer Foxconn was hiring more workers to help Apple meet its goals.

Kuo paints a different picture. The insider says that two of the company's biggest supply chain partners, TSMC and Largan, have indicated that component orders have not increased compared with last year.

According to Kuo's estimates, 87 million iPhone 16 units will be produced in the latter part of the year, which is slightly lower compared to the 91 million iPhone units produced during H2 2023.

While it's generally believed that Apple Intelligence, the company's suite of AI features, will drive upgrades, Kuo notes that the impact may not be as profound as previously thought. That's partially because initially, Apple Intelligence will only be available in beta, and that too for only users in the US.

We also think that AI fatigue is settling in and having artificial intelligence as the main selling point for your phone may not work the same way it did last year or earlier this year.

Moreover, it could be another year before the best Apple Intelligence features arrive, so it won't make sense for most users to upgrade just for the sake of AI features.