If you're planning to spend a small fortune on a foldable smartphone in the immediate future, you're clearly in the minority among prospective buyers of new high-end models. Unfortunately for companies expecting these radical new form factors to bring growth back to the global market, it doesn't look like that will happen anytime soon for a number of reasons.
Along with big production challenges and prohibitive retail costs, Gartner is highlighting unspecified "trade-offs" as a key cause of the slow uptake of foldable devices. This might be so slow, in fact, that the foldable category is barely projected to account for 5 percent of all high-end smartphone shipments... in 2023. According to the market research firm, that should roughly equate to 30 million units, a number that the likes of Samsung and Huawei will naturally only reach after gradual signs of progress these next four years.
If Gartner's analysts are correct, it doesn't sound like Apple will join the foldable game during this period of slow growth. That's obviously just an assumption, but it's one based on the tech giant's modus operandi. It seems far more likely that the first foldable iPhone will arrive once the upcoming "form factor experimentation" concludes and the industry comes to an agreement in terms of which approach provides the most benefits at the best price.
As far as the smartphone market as a whole is concerned, Gartner doesn't expect any major tide turns in the near future. Overall shipments could drop from 1.81 billion units in 2018 to 1.8 billion this year, growing to 1.82 billion in 2020, but then slipping again to an even lower 1.79 billion units in 2021.
Basically, that means the mobile industry will stay flat for a little while longer, which suggests the 5G revolution many top brands and companies are dreaming of isn't happening either. Just like foldables, 5G handsets are simply not practical enough on a large enough scale.
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Adrian, a mobile technology enthusiast since the Nokia 3310 era, has been a dynamic presence in the tech journalism field, contributing to Android Authority, Digital Trends, and Pocketnow before joining PhoneArena in 2018. His expertise spans across various platforms, with a particular fondness for the diversity of the Android ecosystem. Despite the challenges of balancing full-time parenthood with his work, Adrian's passion for tech trends, running, and movies keeps him energized. His commitment to mid-range smartphones has led to an eclectic collection of devices, saved from personal bankruptcy by his preference for 'adequate' over 'overpriced'.
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