AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon customers are going to hate carrier pricing intentions
With the customer base shrinking, it's natural to expect AT&T, T-Mobile, and Verizon to bring out the big guns - price cuts - to attract customers. Except it's not going to happen.
T-Mobile and Verizon have in recent times introduced price guarantees and increased hotspot data allowance to remain competitive. That's going to be the extent of their competitiveness though — one-upping each other on promotions. They are unlikely to reduce prices to outdo each other.
Analysts that don't believe a price war is underway or on the horizon. If anything, prices have gone up this year, either directly or indirectly. That doesn't necessarily mean customers are worse off, with Verizon's consumer chief, Sowmyanarayan Sampath, reminding everyone that the price of core phone services has not gone up, and customers are only paying more because of added perks, such as subscriptions.
Verizon may be going all out on promotions and carriers may not be curtailing smartphone subsidy rates or discounts on new phones, but that's about it. Subsidies are a huge cost for carriers, and according to some estimates, they eat up 50 percent of the revenue a customer will bring to a company over their contract. Carriers are more into keeping things stable and tapping into promotions to court customers.
A report published by New Street Research analysts based on recent offers from Comcast, T-Mobile, and Verizon has also concluded that prices are rising.
The bottom line is that while there may not be price cuts, customers are not paying more for phone service but carriers are earning more due to the added perks.
T-Mobile and Verizon have in recent times introduced price guarantees and increased hotspot data allowance to remain competitive. That's going to be the extent of their competitiveness though — one-upping each other on promotions. They are unlikely to reduce prices to outdo each other.
I do not sense that there is a price war. Verizon has been unusually promotional and its ad spending in March was surprisingly high, but there is no overall price war.
—Jeff Moore, principal Wave7 Research, April 2025
It's always a competitive market. We pulse in and out [with] promotions as we see volumes in the market and when we have an opportunity to go for volumes, we go for it. We like our playbook. It's an aggressive playbook.
—Sowmyanarayan Sampath, president Verizon’s Consumer Group, April 2025
All in all, it's said to be a win-win situation for everyone - customers are getting more value while carriers are enjoying beefier margins.
We are starting to see operators trying to compete based on service price stability.
—Avi Greengart, president Techsponential, April 2025
There is no question that promotional activity and promotional value have been increasing over the last six months.
—Adeeva Fritz, senior director Navi, April 2025
Analysts who keep close tabs on the industry, including Wave7 Research's Jeff Moore, Techsponential's Avi Greengart, Navi's Adeeva Fritz, Recon Analytics's Roger Entner, and MoffettNathanson's Craig Moffett have all burst the bubble that a price war is looming.
I wouldn't go to the point of calling it a price war, but I would say it is healthy competition. The last time I checked the prices are going up in the industry. Service revenue is going up and prices are holding pretty much stable. We have active competition.
—Roger Entner, founder Recon Analytics, April 2025
there’s no mistaking that we are in a promotions war, with handset subsidies reaching all-time highs and, in many cases, now accounting for as much as half the revenue expected over a customer’s contract life
—Craig Moffett, MoffettNathanson, April 2025
Carrier execs agree that the market is competitive but they have expressed no interest in engaging in a price war either. They also don't seem to be interested in customers who are not profitable and would rather go after high-value customers.
Competition is always vibrant in this space, and there's always going to be competition, either on rates or competition on devices. The nature of competition kind of ebbs and flows.
The way I think about it is when you look at what consumers are getting for what they pay, it's better than ever. And then when you look at the health of the overall industry, it's better than ever.
—Jon Freier, president T-Mobile Consumer Group, April 2025
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