A storied Apple analyst is worried that its debut Vision Pro AR/VR headset seems to have limited reach outside of the inevitable mass of early adopters. While Apple Vision Pro preorder weekend sales may have reached up to 180,000 units, the demand may be tapering off, contrary to what usually happens with iPhone launches.
Granted, the $3,500 starting price of the Vision Pro might be the chief obstacle that stands between Apple's first new product in a decade and its mass adoption, but other reasons are now piling up even before the Apple Vision Pro reviews. Immediately after Apple launched the Vision Pro preorders, several of the most popular content platforms - YouTube, Netflix, Meta, or Spotify - said they have no plans to support it.
Why are Google, Netflix, and Spotify ganging up on the Apple Vision Pro?
"Apple Vision Pro has the familiar apps you know and love - transformed to live in your space. Like Safari, Photos, Music, and Messages," waxes poetic Apple in the promos for its inaugural augmented reality device. What it won't have, however, are other familiar apps. Like YouTube.
If a Vision Pro owner wants to watch YouTube videos, Netflix originals, or stream their Spotify playlist, they'll have to use them in the Safari browser. Tough luck, as that would inevitably become way too cumbersome on what could already be a challenging to navigate interface experience. Does it have to be like that?
The number of visionOS-compatible apps for the Apple Vision Pro may disappoint at launch
Google may not want Apple Vision Pro to succeed
Given the love-hate relationship that Google has with Apple, it's not hard to fathom a scenario in which it isn't exactly enthused about the idea to cede yet another promising future technology to Apple's user clout. Apple has been trying to decouple from Google's popular apps for years, all the while Google has been paying it billions to be the default search option on iOS devices.
In light of those tussles that go way back to the time when Steve Jobs wanted to launch a "thermonuclear war" on Google for - in his opinion - stealing iOS concepts with its Android software, Google might simply want to slow down any success potential that the Vision Pro and its new visionOS may achieve with the mass user. After all, Apple TV+ and Prime Video aren't exactly with the clout of YouTube, so the fact that one can natively watch The Foundation on the Vision Pro may not make up for the lack of YouTube.
Content streaming giants like Netflix or Spotify, some of which have had their own fights with Apple over the "tax" it takes on subscriptions made via iOS, may also be reluctant to repeat the experience in the new virtual reality of Vision Pro. Apple just resolved its commission dispute with the maker of Fortnite Epic Games, for instance, by going around the ruling and still claiming a commission rate of 27% on the direct link alternative for payments outside its billing system.
It's just that now the developer can get an "entitlement" for including a direct payment link in addition to Apple's subscription processing. Spotify argued that this defeats the purpose since "Apple has demonstrated that they will stop at nothing to protect the profits they exact on the backs of developers and consumers under their app store monopoly," so the streaming platforms aren't exactly bursting with joy to join another visionOS ecosystem provided by Apple.
The Vision Pro will launch with second-tier streaming platforms
Apple Vision Pro demand might not justify the means
On the other hand, after the fairly successful Apple Vision Pro preorders launch, demand seems to be abating, unlike the iPhone launches. Google and the other content juggernauts may simply be waiting to see if the Apple Vision Pro catches up with people's minds enough to warrant dedicated resources for software development and support.
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Storied Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo thinks that Apple could still be on track to sell half a million AR/VR headsets this year, but he is also worried about some signs that only early adopters will get it and then demand will nosedive. YouTube, Netflix, and Spotify may have decided to forfeit several hundred thousand potential eyeballs or ears more, and only jump in with full app support if demand makes the move inevitable.
After all, the augmented reality of Apple Vision Pro would need way more developer efforts to create a fitting native app that will live up to Apple's standards for the nascent visionOS platform and be approved for presence in the "compatible apps" carousel there. Until then, YouTube browser access should suffice, at least according to Google and the rest of the Silicon Valley gang.
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Daniel, a devoted tech writer at PhoneArena since 2010, has been engrossed in mobile technology since the Windows Mobile era. His expertise spans mobile hardware, software, and carrier networks, and he's keenly interested in the future of digital health, car connectivity, and 5G. Beyond his professional pursuits, Daniel finds balance in travel, reading, and exploring new tech innovations, while contemplating the ethical and privacy implications of our digital future.
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