In a rebuff to famed Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the typically-bearish folks from Rosenblatt Securities are coming out with a gloomy iPhone 11 series prediction, and a bit strange iPhone 12 one.
According to the analysts there, Apple is cutting the iPhone 11 Pro and Pro Max duo production by up to 25% in this and the coming quarter. While on the face of it this might run contrary to what other analysts and their supply chain sources are saying about robust iPhone sales growth compared to the same period last year, they meant the iPhone 11, and not the more expensive models.
A recent analyst meeting with Apple's CFO, however, indicates robust production goals for the Pro models as well, but we won't know for sure before Apple reports its quarterly sales late next month.
Thus, both the bearish and the bullish sides of the Apple analyst camp may be right in their own way, but the next client memo predictions from Rosenblatt Securities, about the iPhone 12, are a bit less plausible.
The analysts there claim that Apple will be releasing no less than six new iPhone 12 models next fall alone, and that doesn't even take into account the eventual iPhone 9 in the spring. Apple, Rosenblatt says, will have one entry-level 6.1" iPhone 12 with an LCD panel which is the part hardest to believe, and then they split the rumored 5.4", 6.1" and 6.7" iPhones by 4G and 5G versions, arriving at the final six iPhones tally.
To recap, this prediction runs contrary to what Ming-Chi Kuo expects Apple will do, and his track record on the company's future plans is almost immaculate. Here's what his expectations are at the moment, in the form of a hastily-assembled infographic:
As you can see, he envisions "only" four new models in the fall, whereas the Rosenblatt folks add a weird LCD-laden iPhone 12 as well, plus they separate the models by 4G and 5G variants, which is how they arrive at the six handset mark. His prediction jibes with what JP Morgan analysts were sending in a memo to clients just last week:
The 2H20 lineup will include all OLED phones, with screen sizes of 5.4″ (one model), 6.1″ (two), and 6.7″ (one), broadening the screen size range from 5.8″ to 6.5″ in 2019. We expect the two higher end models (one 6.1″, one 6.7″) to include mmWave support, triple camera and World facing 3D sensing, while the lower-end models (one 6.1″, one 5.4″) will include support for only sub-6 GHz and dual camera (no World-facing 3D sensing).
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To recap the expected new iPhone models by analyst predictions, including the ones from JP Morgan that coincide with what Kuo is saying, here's a table listing:
Ming-Chi Kuo (TF Securities)
J.P. Morgan
Rosenblatt Securities
Four new fall 2020 iPhone models:
iPhone 12 with a 5.4” OLED display, dual camera iPhone 12 with a 6.1” OLED display, dual camera iPhone 12 Pro with a 6.1” OLED display, triple camera iPhone 12 Pro Max with a 6.7” OLED display, triple camera
Four new fall 2020 iPhone models:
iPhone 12 with a 5.4” OLED display, dual camera iPhone 12 with a 6.1” OLED display, dual camera iPhone 12 Pro with a 6.1” OLED display, triple camera and ToF sensor iPhone 12 Pro Max with a 6.7” OLED display, triple camera and ToF sensor
Six new fall 2020 iPhone models:
iPhone 12 with a 6.1” LCD display iPhone 12 Pro with a 5.4” OLED display and 4G/5G versions iPhone 12 Pro with a 6.1” OLED display and 4G/5G versions iPhone 12 Pro Max with a 6.7” display, 5G model
Given that two analyst powerhouses are predicting for new iPhone 12 models next fall, all with 5G and OLED displays, and are only differentiating them by whether or not they's include mmWave support, we'd have to take the Rosenblatt report with a grain of salt for now.
Thus, those who are relying on this latest report to get a basic iPhone 12 with a 6.1" LCD display and Apple A14, may have to swap their expectations for an A13 processor, and get the iPhone 11, as otherwise the differences would be too small for anyone to care enough.
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Daniel, a devoted tech writer at PhoneArena since 2010, has been engrossed in mobile technology since the Windows Mobile era. His expertise spans mobile hardware, software, and carrier networks, and he's keenly interested in the future of digital health, car connectivity, and 5G. Beyond his professional pursuits, Daniel finds balance in travel, reading, and exploring new tech innovations, while contemplating the ethical and privacy implications of our digital future.
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