With no design change, less than 10% of iPhone owners plan to upgrade to the iPhone 7 this year

Back in May, a report out of Taiwan suggested that for 2016 Apple had placed an order in the range of 72 million to 78 million units for the Apple iPhone 7 and Apple iPhone 7 Plus. It would appear that Apple was being overly optimistic about demand for the new iPhone in the face of some reports that suggest that the new models might not sell like hot cakes this year.

Part of the reason for this pessimism is the lack of a killer new feature on the phone. Apple's game plan for 2016 is addition by subtraction. Removing the 3.5mm earphone jack means that the iPhone 7 could be thinner. Or, Apple might use the extra room to add a larger capacity battery to the device. KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, known for his highly accurate calls on Apple's mobile products, said back in April that the iPhone 7 won't have any attractive selling points.

A survey conducted by Quartz found that less than 10% of iPhone owners will upgrade to the next iteration of the device if the model is not re-designed, as is likely. Nearly 80% will not buy the new iPhone 7 if it looks like the current model, which leaves about 10% not so sure what they are going to do.

There also has been talk about Apple extending the life cycle of an iPhone from two-years to three-years. A survey found that 34.4% are likely to change their personal upgrade cycle to match Apple. 30% are not likely to follow Apple. The survey covered 525 adults who own an iPhone. They were questioned from June 21st to July 5th, 2016.

With 60% of iPhone owners believed to be using an iPhone model older than 2014's Apple iPhone 6, perhaps there is some reason after all for Apple to expect a huge opening quarter of sales for the iPhone 7. On the other hand, we could see many of those 60% decide to ride things out just one more year. That will allow them to wait for the wholesale changes Apple is likely to make to the iPhone next year, to celebrate the tenth anniversary of the device.


source: Quartz via CNET