Analyst Horace Dediu of asymco has come to the conclusion that by some time in 2012, Android users will overtake the installed base of iOS users. Graphing the number of activations each quarter, the analyst says that currently Apple has 191 million users after 48 months. In 31 months, Android totals 83 million users. Deidu deduces that the latter will overcome the former by sometime in 2012 based on current rates of momentum and growth.
Of course, momentum is not a static number. Things change, new features get offered, and the analysis done by Dediu assumes that everything stays the same. The analyst adds, "One should be careful about drawing conclusions that this implies effective competition. Both platforms are growing very quickly. iOS is growing at at least 100%/yr and Android’s second year was 65x bigger than its first. iOS growth is limited by the ramp rates of a limited portfolio of products. Android growth is limited by how quickly vendors can bring out products. Neither platform is demand constrained and hence they are competing for share of growth not for share of a fixed pie."
He also says that "extrapolation is a dangerous game." For example, had he done this comparison even just a week prior to the launch of the original Motorola DROID, the results would have looked quite different.
Alan, an ardent smartphone enthusiast and a veteran writer at PhoneArena since 2009, has witnessed and chronicled the transformative years of mobile technology. Owning iconic phones from the original iPhone to the iPhone 15 Pro Max, he has seen smartphones evolve into a global phenomenon. Beyond smartphones, Alan has covered the emergence of tablets, smartwatches, and smart speakers.
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