IDC: Tablet sales growth in single digits for the foreseeable future

Apple’s iPad sales figures over the past year are indicative of a larger trend for the segment. IDC had already lowered its forecast of tablet sales for 2014 and beyond, and based on the latest quarterly figures, that forecast has not changed at all.

Android and Windows based tablets are expected to see continued growth over the next four years, but aggregate growth of iPad is looking a bit less robust, with market share expected to shrink.

The issue with tablets is not popularity, as volumes of shipments will continue to grow, but people will hold on to tablets due to cost and longer life-cycle, especially in the 2-in-1 segment which have a bit more power and have functionality closer to stand-alone computers.

One of the hindrances for the 2-in-1 segment is the reticence of people’s acceptance of the newer versions of Windows 8, of which, the majority of those devices are powered by Microsoft’s platform. Android powered tablets rule the roost in terms of market share, but that factor alone will not overwhelm the trend of a longer period of ownership.

Tablet sales growth was robust last year, but it is forecast to grow just 7% this year, and by 2018, it will slow to somewhere under 4% year-over-year. Granted, making an accurate prediction at this stage in the game is nowhere near an exact science. There are a number of “unknowns” in the mix, such as how well will Windows 10 be received, what Apple might be doing with its product line, and we cannot rule out Google with Android or Chrome OS.


Traditional computers are still the gorilla in the room, and for those that need real computing power, the tablets fall short in a lot of areas. Nonetheless, that is where the tablet segment will need to poach business, as it does not appear the model would support a replacement cycle similar to one-to-three-year time frame that is common with smartphones.



source: IDC via Business Insider