The new IDC phone shipment forecast for the year is out, and the growth in Android phone sales is expected to be nine times that of Apple's iPhones.
The renowned research firm predicts that global smartphone shipments will be 1.23 billion units in 2024, a healthy grwoth of 5.8% compared to last year's shipments. The International Data Corporation's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker recorded a whopping 12% growth in the first quarter when the Galaxy S25 series was released, and a 9% increase in shipments year-on-year in the second quarter that ended in June.
The renewed optimism about smartphone sales comes hot on the heels of the first handsets with generative AI functions released by major brands. Those will notch a jawdropping 344% increase in shipments this year, according to IDC, and will have no less than 18% market share in their initial year of existence.
A lot is riding on the iPhone 16 series sales, too, as it will ship with Apple Intelligence for the first time, Apple's take on GenAI that is somewhat belated compared to Samsung, Google, Oppo that not only have flagships but midrange AI-powered phones now.
While AI phones are still expensive, the shipments growth is driven mainly by Android sales in China and emerging markets that are on the rise. In fact, the Android phone shipments will grow by more than 7% this year, which is nine times the Apple iPhone's sales increase forecast.
However, there is a potential upside to the iOS forecast with a lot depending on how well the demonstrated GenAI use cases play out in the upcoming iPhone 16 launch and how soon Apple can establish local AI partnerships in China. IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025 with 4% year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence, which is already creating a lot of excitement and is expected to gain momentum next year and encourage faster upgrades.
Nabila Popal, senior research director with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, August '24
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Android phone makers sell more for less. | Image credit – IDC
When it comes to actual profits from selling phones, however, Apple is still king. Its iPhones will command an average selling price of $982 this year, or probably more if it indeed raises the price tag of the iPhone 16 Pro. Android phones, on the other hand, sell for $281 as a global average, or three and a half times less than iPhones.
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Daniel, a devoted tech writer at PhoneArena since 2010, has been engrossed in mobile technology since the Windows Mobile era. His expertise spans mobile hardware, software, and carrier networks, and he's keenly interested in the future of digital health, car connectivity, and 5G. Beyond his professional pursuits, Daniel finds balance in travel, reading, and exploring new tech innovations, while contemplating the ethical and privacy implications of our digital future.
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