Vision Pro's static lead times are not necessarily a bearish sign of demand for the device
The lead time of a product is the distance in days between when an order is first placed, and when the order is fulfilled. A great example is when we quote you the lead times during the latest iPhone pre-order period. Wall Street analysts use the information to decide whether a certain iPhone model is generating strong demand or is exhibiting weakness. Investors have been doing the same thing with the Vision Pro as pre-orders for the spatial computer started last Friday.
Depending on the model (there are three variants with 256GB of memory, 512GB of memory, and 1TB of memory), last weekend saw shipping dates for the Vision Pro pushed out to March and even April for some models. Reliable TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that Vision Pro pre-sales amounted to 160,000-180,000 units over the weekend and had previously estimated that Apple would have 60,000-80,000 Vision Pro units available. The initial stock was said to be all gone 18 minutes after pre-orders opened Friday morning.
Kuo did have some concerns about Vision Pro lead times not showing any increase in shipping times 48 hours after pre-orders started. Kuo said, "The instant sold-out and extended shipping times seem positive at first, but a key concern emerged: shipping times remained unchanged 48 hours after pre-orders opened. It indicates that demand may quickly taper off after the core fans and heavy users place their orders."
The analyst added, "However, unlike Vision Pro, iPhone models usually continue to see a steady increase in shipping times 24 to 48 hours after pre-orders open indicating that demand continues to grow even after the initial sold-out." On the other hand, Kuo noted that media reports say that Vision Pro suppliers such as Luxshare "will work overtime during the Lunar New Year to meet demand, meaning better than expected demand for Vision Pro."
Global securities firm J.P. Morgan warns investors not to take the unchanged lead times for the Vision Pro after 48 hours of pre-orders as a sign that the spatial computer is not selling well. In a note to clients, the firm wrote, "The focus on lead times in the case of the Vision Pro is misplaced, and we expect the focus should be on the consumer feedback on the experience of the device." J.P. Morgan says that investors need to monitor the supply chain for word of additional orders related to the Vision Pro 2.
The securities firm says that the quick push out of Vision Pro lead times to March and April were "on account of retail customers that are willing to put in orders to secure the device despite limited experience." The lack of movement in the lead times since then was expected "given the lack of broader appetite to buy the product without an experience."
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