Vision Pro will not immediately impact Apple and the world as iPhone did
Last month Apple unveiled its Vision Pro spatial computer and before the video of the new device was streamed to the world, many started to compare the introduction of the mixed reality device to that day in January 2007 when Steve Jobs masterfully hosted the introduction of the iPhone. Like the iPhone, the Vision Pro isn't creating a new product category but is taking the category to a previously unseen level.
But when it comes to the impact that Vision Pro will have on the world and Apple, that's where the comparisons end. At least for now. The latest edition of Power On from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman takes a look at some of Apple's hit products and how they affected Apple's overall revenue. For example, the iPod was launched in 2001 and by 2004, it was accounting for 16% of the company's top line. By the time the iPhone was announced in 2007, the iPod was bringing in $8 billion a year which worked out to 40% of Apple's gross.
The Vision Pro will not impact Apple immediately as the iPhone did
As Gurman notes, the iPhone, despite being an AT&T exclusive, still sold 10 million units during its first full year and the device contributed a third of Apple's revenue by 2009. The iPad immediately contributed 18% of Apple's gross in 2011, the year following the tablet's initial launch. And the Apple Watch, which started life available in only 9 countries, is now part of a business segment that includes the AirPods and other products and brings about $40 billion into Apple's coffers annually.
And as far as the impact on society, nothing can touch the immediate response to the iPhone. The smartphone quickly became the most indispensable tech tool in the world. But the Vision Pro is a much different animal. While the iPhone was first considered pricey when it was introduced, the Vision Pro starts at a whopping $3,499. And while the Vision Pro offers some cool features, most of the applications it delivers can be found on the iPhone.
Sure, Vision Pro gives you options to manipulate the environment and/or the datat you're viewing but you're paying a heavy price, and not just financially. The battery lasts only a couple of hours and unless you want to carry extra battery packs with you, Apple's spatial computer is not yet ready, not even close, to replacing the iPhone.
Apple's endgame is to produce the next big thing to replace the iPhone and the Vision Pro is not that thing
That's not to say that the Vision Pro won't sell. The original plans called for more than a million units to be sold in the first year. But the Financial Times recently reported that Apple isn't pleased with the low yields Sony has had producing the micro-OLED displays for the product. Other production issues will limit the number of Vision Pro units assembled in the first year to 400,000 which means that the product will be hard to find.
While Apple is reportedly working on a lower-priced spatial computer that might not have all of the features that the Vision Pro offers, I have to agree with Bloomberg's Gurman when he says that most consumers will stick with their iPhone until Apple can reduce the Vision Pro to the size of a pair of glasses. Almost everybody who watches the tech world either as a writer or consumer has assumed that the next big thing for Apple after the iPhone would be a pair of glasses that would offer the features and functionality of the iPhone, but worn on the user's face.
Again, a product like AR smart glasses has always been assumed to be the endgame for Apple and not much has changed even with the appearance of the Vision Pro. Check out the AR features of the headset and the way the app icons appear and are selected with a look. TF International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says not to expect Apple to release AR glasses until 2026-2027 at the earliest. That timeline might be too ambitious but Apple has taken the first step with this new device. Just don't expect the Vision Pro to have the same impact on Apple and society as the iPhone.
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