Apple Vision Pro demand tapered off after 180,000 units bought in preorder weekend
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Apple may have sold up to 180,000 of its Vision Pro AR/VR headsets in its first preorder weekend, at $3,500 a pop. That is the estimate of famed Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who previously mentioned that Apple may have no more than 80,000 Vision Pro units produced for its release date of February 2. The mismatch between the Vision Pro demand and supply analysis stems from the fact that for a long period the shipping times didn't budge.
Up to "48 hours after pre-orders were opened, the shipping time remained unchanged," says Kuo, explaining why at the beginning it seemed that Apple didn't sell out of its first production batch of Vision Pro units. After the initial pause, however, shipping times began being extended for up to 7 weeks after the launch date, indicating that there is enough early adopter demand so that Apple may have sold 160,000-180,000 Vision Pro units in its first preorder weekend. Again, that's "based on the stocking level before pre-orders and the shipping time."
Early Apple Vision Pro adopter fatigue
What Mr. Kuo is now concerned about, however, is the quick exhaustion of early Vision Pro adopters. With the iPhone launches, Apple rapidly sells out of its initial production batches, and then the shipping times gradually start to increase in the first day or two after preorders start.
The Vision Pro preorder pattern, however, followed a completely different path. Shipping times didn't budget for full 48 hours after Apple opened the preorders for its first AR/VR headset, and only then started to gradually increase until they plateaued, indicating that early adopters demand was slow to manifest and may still prove fleeting enough.
The analyst still expects that Apple may sell half a million Vision Pro units this year, which would be quite an achievement for its first completely new device line in a decade, and one whose devices are priced north of three grand at that. For now, "the inability to sustain a steady increase in pre-order demand is a major concern and also confirms earlier concerns about whether the intensity of demand can be sustained," tips Kuo.
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